So, I ended up with a B- on my 2013 predictions and it’s time to review how I did in 2014. I have to admit, I’m not too excited to see my 2014 mobile trends and predictions scorecard.
The NEW BlackBerry
I predicted that BlackBerry would be the new SEGA. I unfortunately missed the boat big time on this one. BlackBerry is still struggling on the hardware side of things. BlackBerry did not start creating software for iOS and Android like I had thought. They have slipped to 0.5% market share as of Q3 2014.
It’s still a two horse race
This one I hit dead on. However it wasn’t a big stretch to predict this. Microsoft is down from 3.6% to 2.9% from Q3 2013 to Q3 2014. I also said to keep your eyes on Huawei, LG and ZTE. These manufacturers have increased their marketshare, however not significantly. They have taken a bite out of Samsung as Samsung dropped from 32.2% to 23.7% marketshare from Q3 2013 to Q3 2014 with Apple continuing to drop another percentage point in the same time period.
Hyper-Local Location Technology – geofencing and Bluetooth Low-Energy (BLE) become big with retailers
BLE continues to evolve and drop in price. Stores like Macy’s are jumping on to test the viability of the technology and effectiveness. Looking at the Gartner Hype Cycles, We are still on the upward sloop of technology trigger and have yet to hit the peak of inflated expectations. Location is still the new cookie.
Wearables become mainstream and generate more data than marketers can handle
We have seen the release of the iWatch and Samsung watch. However, we are also seeing the demise of Google Glass. Brands have yet to find a way to take advantage of the data and tie in with the wearable makers. Mobile has yet to become a fashion statement so my prediction is still a little early.
NFC will die a slow death
OK, I have to admit, this one hurts a little. I am still not sold on NFC, at least not as a method of payment. Three years ago while speaking at a conference with Apple in attendance, I looked directly at them and said that NFC will never go anywhere without Apple standing behind it. I didn’t think I’d see the day they would yield to the pressure of putting NFC into their devices and thought they would come up with their own technology as they usually do. Three years later, Apple introduced Apple Pay. Stores across the U.S. started jumping on board and even the local dry cleaners and Laundromats in my city have signs up that they accept Apple Pay.
That being said, some U.S. retailers are shunning Apple Pay for their own rival system. With retailers such as Wal-Mart, Rite Aid and CVS choosing Merchants Customer Exchange (MCX), it is going to be nearly impossible for Apple Pay to win the battle. However, Apple Pay has brought NFC into the forefront of the conversation. NRC out, BLE in? ‘m not sure either are in or out.
Could SMS steal the branding spotlight from apps?
While it’s true that SMS is far from being dead. I actually wrote a book about text message (SMS) marketing this year. Businesses are still not jumping on the number one use of a mobile phone. While we are getting fatigued with the number of apps, companies are not investing new marketing dollars in SMS, yet.
Changing of the marketing/advertising guard
Brands are still not investing the appropriate amount of marketing dollars and mindshare to mobile. More than half of consumer time spent on the Internet is on mobile devices. We spend more time on our mobile devices than we do watching TV. In 2014, global mobile ad spending increased 72 percent and TV ad spending is projected to rise 9 percent in the next two year. TV ad spending still dwarfs any marketing dollars spent on mobile marketing. Marketers are making a better effort to reach more touchpoints with mobile but we are still behind where we should be in engaging the customers.
Augmented Reality (AR)
AR still hasn’t made much of an impact. It’s still stuck in the middle of nowhere.
Smarter, mobile-infused cars
I’m so disappointed in the lack of progress made here. I don’t know if it is the brands or the car manufacturers that are the problem but someone needs to break down the barrier. Domino’s has tried to do it with Ford. More and more cars are becoming smarter every day but brands have yet to take full advantage of it.
Looks like I have a solid C for last year. Let’s hope I do better with next year’s mobile trends and predictions. How did your mobile predictions score this year? Tell me what you’re proud and embarrassed by.